Gamma-Ray Burst and Relativistic Shells: The Surface Filling Factor

The variability observed in many complex gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is inconsistent with causally connected variations in a single, symmetric, relativistic shell interacting with the ambient material ("external shocks"). Rather, the symmetry of the shell must be broken on an angular scale much smaller than Gamma^{-1} where Gamma is the bulk Lorentz factor for the shell. The observed variability in the external shock models arises from the number of causally connected regions that (randomly) become active. We define the "surface filling factor" to be the ratio of the area of causally connected regions that become active to the observable area of the shell. From the observed variability in 52 BATSE bursts, we estimate the surface filling factor to be typically 0.005 although some values are near unity. We find that the surface filling factor is about 0.1 Delta T/T in both the constant Gamma phase (which probably produces the GRB) and the deaccelerating phase (which probably produces the x-ray afterglows). Here, \Delta T is a typical time scale of variability and T is the time since the initial signal. We analyze the 2 hr flare seen by ASCA 36 hr after the GRB and conclude that the surface filling factor must be small (0.001) in the x-ray afterglow phase as well. Explanations for low surface filling factor can either require more or less energy (by a factor of about 1000) compared to that expected for a symmetric shell.Comment: 26 pages, 5 embedded figures, Latex, revised version as in press, ApJ, added figure to show the possible expanding shell geometries that can give low filling facto

Vaccinia virus immune evasion: mechanisms, virulence and immunogenicity

Virus infection of mammalian cells is sensed by pattern recognition receptors and leads to an innate immune response that restricts virus replication and induces adaptive immunity. In response, viruses have evolved many countermeasures that enable them to replicate and be transmitted to new hosts, despite the host innate immune response. Poxviruses, such as vaccinia virus (VACV), have large DNA genomes and encode many proteins that are dedicated to host immune evasion. Some of these proteins are secreted from the infected cell, where they bind and neutralize complement factors, interferons, cytokines and chemokines. Other VACV proteins function inside cells to inhibit apoptosis or signalling pathways that lead to the production of interferons and pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. In this review, these VACV immunomodulatory proteins are described and the potential to create more immunogenic VACV strains by manipulation of the gene encoding these proteins is discussed

Crowd behaviour during high-stress evacuations in an immersive virtual environment

Understanding the collective dynamics of crowd movements during stressful emergency situations is central to reducing the risk of deadly crowd disasters. Yet, their systematic experimental study remains a challenging open problem due to ethical and methodological constraints. In this paper, we demonstrate the viability of shared 3D virtual environments as an experimental platform for conducting crowd experiments with real people. In particular, we show that crowds of real human subjects moving and interacting in an immersive 3D virtual environment exhibit typical patterns of real crowds as observed in real-life crowded situations. These include the manifestation of social conventions and the emergence of self-organized patterns during egress scenarios. High-stress evacuation experiments conducted in this virtual environment reveal movements characterized by mass herding and dangerous overcrowding as they occur in crowd disasters. We describe the behavioral mechanisms at play under such extreme conditions and identify critical zones where overcrowding may occur. Furthermore, we show that herding spontaneously emerges from a density effect without the need to assume an increase of the individual tendency to imitate peers. Our experiments reveal the promise of immersive virtual environments as an ethical, cost-efficient, yet accurate platform for exploring crowd behaviour in high-risk situations with real human subjects.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India.

More effective tuberculosis vaccines are needed to help reach World Health Organization tuberculosis elimination goals. Insufficient evidence exists on the potential impact of future tuberculosis vaccines with varying characteristics and in different epidemiological settings. To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries. We calibrated Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) transmission models to age-stratified demographic and epidemiological data from China, South Africa, and India. We varied vaccine efficacy to prevent infection or disease, effective in persons M.tb uninfected or infected, and duration of protection. We modeled routine early-adolescent vaccination and 10-yearly mass campaigns from 2025. We estimated median percentage population-level tuberculosis incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 compared to a no new vaccine scenario. In all settings, results suggested vaccines preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations would have greatest impact by 2050 (10-year, 70% efficacy against disease, IRR 51%, 52%, and 54% in China, South Africa, and India, respectively). Vaccines preventing reinfection delivered lower potential impact (IRR 1, 12, and 17%). Intermediate impact was predicted for vaccines effective only in uninfected populations, if preventing infection (IRR 21, 37, and 50%) or disease (IRR 19, 36, and 51%), with greater impact in higher-transmission settings. Tuberculosis vaccines have the potential to deliver substantial population-level impact. For prioritizing impact by 2050, vaccine development should focus on preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations. Preventing infection or disease in uninfected populations may be useful in higher transmission settings. As vaccine impact depended on epidemiology, different development strategies may be required

Direct radiocarbon dating of fish otoliths from mulloway (Argyrosomus japonicus) and black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) from Long Point, Coorong, South Australia

Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates (n=20) determined on fish otoliths from mulloway (Argyrosomus japonicus) and black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) are reported from five sites at Long Point, Coorong, South Australia. The dates range from 2938–2529 to 326–1 cal. BP, extending the known period of occupation of Long Point. Previous dating at the sites indicated intensive occupation of the area from 2455–2134 cal. BP. Results provide a detailed local chronology for the region, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of Aboriginal use of Ngarrindjeri lands and waters. This study validates the use of fish otoliths for radiocarbon dating and reveals how dating different materials can result in different midden chronologies

Operation of a 1-Liter-Volume Gaseous Argon Scintillation Counter

We have built a gas-phase argon ionization detector to measure small nuclear recoil energies (< 10 keVee). In this paper, we describe the detector response to X-ray and gamma calibration sources, including analysis of pulse shapes, software triggers, optimization of gas content, and energy- and position-dependence of the signal. We compare our experimental results against simulation using a 5.9-keV X-ray source, as well as higher-energy gamma sources up to 1332 keV. We conclude with a description of the detector, DAQ, and software settings optimized for a measurement of the low-energy nuclear quenching factor in gaseous argon. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Funded by Lab-wide LDRD. LLNL-JRNL-415990-DRAFT.Comment: 29 pages, single-column, double-spaced, 21 figure